January 16, 2019

Gillibrand Announces Run for President

I’ve posted the videos from others, the latest is Kirsten Gillibrand.

January 9, 2019

Trump Trails Biden By 5% in NC

Donald Trump won the state of North Carolina by about 3.5% in 2016, but a new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that he would struggle to win there again.

Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Kamala Harris (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Cory Booker (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%

In the gubernatorial race, sitting Democratic Governor Roy Cooper starts out with leads over various Republican candidates.

Roy Cooper (D-inc) 48%
Phil Berg (R) 34%

Roy Cooper (D-inc) 47%
Dan Forest (R) 35%

Roy Cooper (D-inc) 45%
Pat McCrory (R) 41%

Roy Cooper (D-inc) 46%
Tim Moore (R) 32%

Roy Cooper (D-inc) 46%
Thom Tillis (R) 375

This poll was done January 4-7 among 750 registered voters.

January 7, 2019

Sanders Leads Biden by 2% in NH

We have our first presidential primary poll of the year and it shows New Hampshire Democratic voters still happy to see Bernie Sanders become the nominee. The new numbers from Change Research.

Bernie Sanders 26%
Joe Biden 24%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Beto O’Rourke 9%
Joe Kennedy III 9%
Kamala Harris 4%
Hillary Clinton 3%
Cory Booker 3%
John Kerry 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Tom Steyer 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Richard Ojeda 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Andrew Cuomo 0%
Terry McAuliffe 0%
John Delaney 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Eric Swalwell 0%
Julian Castro 0%
Eric Holder 0%
Howard Schultz 0%

This poll was done January 2-3 among likely Democratic primary voters. Fascinating to see Joe Kennedy III manage to get into a fourth-place tie.

December 31, 2018

Warren Announces Exploratory Committee for President

I guess there are worse times to announce your presidency to get as little publicity as possible, but I would think New Year’s Eve at least ranks in the top five.

December 27, 2018

Biden Leads Trump, Trump Leads O’Rourke

Polling is nearly non-existent over this holiday break for many, but we did get this new poll from The Hill done by HarrisX for the 2020 presidential race.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 37%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 30%

Bernie Sanders (D) 38%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 37%

Joe Biden (D) 42%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 36%

This poll was done December 16-17 among 1,001 registered voters.

December 19, 2018

Biden Leads Sanders By 17% in IA

We have a another new poll from Iowa for the Democratic Caucuses, this one comes from David Binder Research for Focus on Rural America that came out on Monday.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (David Binder Research)
Joe Biden 30%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Amy Klobuchar 10%,
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Kamala Harris 7%
Cory Booker 6%
Sherrod Brown 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
John Kerry 2%
John Delaney 1%
Eric Garcetti 0%

This poll was done December 10-11 among 500 likely caucus goers.

December 18, 2018

Bevin Trails Democrats in KY-GOV Race

We have what I believe might be the first public poll out of Kentucky for the gubernatorial race next year and it comes from Mason-Dixon Polling and shows Republican incumbent Matt Bevin in some trouble against the two announced Democratic candidates.

Andy Beshear (D) 48%
Matt Bevin (R-inc) 40%

Rocky Adkins (D) 42%
Matt Bevin (R-inc) 41%

Matt Bevin (R-inc) 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 46%

This poll was done December 12-15 among 625 registered voters. The PollWatch page for this race can be found here.

December 16, 2018

Biden Leads Democrats in IA and Nationally By Double Digits

We have the first poll for the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2020 from the partnership of CNN and The Des Moines Register that shows Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over second place Bernie Sanders.

Joe Biden 32%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O’Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Kamala Harris 5%
Cory Booker 4%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julián Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Eric Holder 0%
Jay Inslee 0%
Tom Steyer 0%
Eric Swalwell 0%
Andrew Yang 0%
Steve Bullock 0%
Eric Garcetti 0%

This poll was done December 10-13 among 455 likely caucus voters. CNN also released a national primary poll on Friday that showed the same three candidates in the top three nationally.

Joe Biden 30%
Bernie Sanders 14%
Beto O’Rourke 9%
Cory Booker 5%
Kamala Harris 4%
John Kerry 4%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Eric Holder 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Terry McAuliffe 1%
Eric Garcetti <1%
John Hickenlooper <1%
Julián Castro <1%
John Delaney 0%
Tom Steyer 0%

This poll was done December 6-9 among likely Democratic primary voters. Weird they included the 2004 loser John Kerry in the national poll, but not in their Iowa poll.

December 14, 2018

Edwards/Abraham Tied in Louisiana Runoff Election

We have a new poll from Remington Research that shows Jon Bel Edwards short of the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff, where he is currently in a dead heat with the leading Republican.

Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 43%
Ralph Abraham (R) 31%
Eddie Rispone (R) 9%

Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 44%
Ralph Abraham (R) 44%

Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 46%
Eddie Rispone (R) 39%

This poll was done December 11-12 among 1680 likely voters. This gives me the opportunity to highlight the return of The Hedgehog Report PollWatch pages, which after going into hiding the last two cycles, are back. Along the top menu bar below The Hedgehog Report logo, you can click on the three states that have elections coming up next year at the gubernatorial level.

December 12, 2018

Castro Forms Exploratory Committee for 2020

There have already been a few lower-tier Democrats who have said they are running for President, but I would say this might be the first of what the media would consider major candidates to at least formally announce he is forming an exploratory committee.

Seems early, but with the number of candidates likely announcing after New Year’s Day, might as well get your name out there in th empty space instead of it getting mixed up with other candidate’s announcing at the same time.