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October 31, 2014

Polls From AK, IA and WI

Rasmussen Reports has released a new poll in Alaska showing a 5% lead for Dan Sullivan over Mark Begich.

US SENATE – ALASKA (Rasmussen)
Dan Sullivan (R) 47%
Mark Begich (D-inc) 42%

This poll was done October 27-30 among 887 likely voters. In Iowa, Rasmussen is showing a 1%lead for Joni Ernst.

US SENATE – IOWA (Rasmussen)
Joni Ernst (R) 48%
Bruce Braley (D) 47%

This poll was done October 28-30 among 990 likely voters. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling shows the gubernatorial race down to a single percentage point.

GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (PPP)
Scott Walker (R-inc) 48%
Mary Burke (D) 47%

This poll was done October 28-30 among 1814 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 1:25 pm
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Race Tied in IA, Warner Lead Down To Single Digits in VA

We are getting to the point where pollsters are going to be dumping out the polls that will be what they are judged by. We start this morning with Ipsos and Reuters, which peg the race in Iowa as a dead heat tie.

US SENATE – IOWA (Ipsos/Reuters)
Joni Ernst (R) 45%
Bruce Braley (D) 45%

This poll was done October 23-29 among 1129 likely voters. Two polls this morning from Virginia that show the race a lot closer than it has been all year. They come from Vox Populi Polling and Christopher Newport University.

US SENATE – VIRGINIA (VPP)
Mark Warner (D-inc) 44%
Ed Gillespie (R) 40%
Robert Sarvis (L) 5%

US SENATE – VIRGINIA (CNU)
Mark Warner (D-inc) 51%
Ed Gillespie (R) 44%
Robert Sarvis (L) 2%

The VPP poll was done October 27-28 and the CNU poll was done October 23-29, both among likely voters. Still a sizable margin to make up, but maybe a hint of the wave everyone is hoping for.

October 30, 2014

McConnell Leads By 5% in KY, Perdue Leads in GA, Baker Leads By 7% in MA

Huge news in the latest poll from Survey USA in Kentucky where Mitch McConnell has opened up a 5% lead over Alison Lundergan Grimes.

US SENATE – KENTUCKY (Survey USA)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 48%
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43%
David Patterson (L) 3%

This poll was done October 25-29 among 597 likely voters. Meanwhile, Landmark Communications has a new poll showing David Perdue ahead of Michelle Nunn by 0.8% in the state of Georgia.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Landmark)
David Perdue (R) 47.4%
Michelle Nunn(D) 46.6%

This poll was done October 29th among 1500 likely voters. Charlie Baker still has a high single-digit lead in the latest poll from The Boston Globe.

GOVERNOR – MASSACHUSETTS (Boston Globe)
Charlie Baker (R) 44%
Martha Coakley (D) 37%

This poll was done October 26-29 among likely voters.

Gardner Leads By 3% in CO, Tillis Leads By 5% in NC

Vox Populi Polling has put out polls for Colorado and North Carolina.

US SENATE – COLORADO (VPP)
Cory Gardner (R) 46%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 43%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (VPP)
Thom Tillis (R) 48%
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 43%

one concern about that NC poll is they did not include Sean Haugh in the poll. Both polls were done October 26-27 among likely voters. Still waiting for a new Survey USA Kentucky poll coming out tonight.

Posted by Dave at 5:14 pm
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Gardner Leads By 2% in CO, Hagan Leads Two Polls By 1% in NC, More Details on MD Poll

Survey USA has dumped out a poll for the US Senate race in Colorado putting Cory Gardner up by 2% on Mark Udall.

US SENATE – COLORADO (Survey USA)
Cory Gardner (R) 46%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 44%

This poll was done October 27-29 among likely voters. By the way, I did find out from some Hogan campaign workers in Maryland that the poll I mentioned in the previous post was done October 26-27 among 504 likely voters by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, which I then found the memo linked to at The Weekly Standard website.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (WPAOR)
Larry Hogan (R) 44%
Anthony Brown (D) 39%

The memo implies the numbers above are a straight up ballot test. Another poll from Public Policy Polling and their leftist group claiming only a single-point lead for Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP/LCV)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 47%
Thom Tillis (R) 46%

This poll was done October 28-29 among 657 likely voters. Rasmussen Reports also pegs this race at the same exact margin.

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 47%
Thom Tillis (R) 46%

This poll was also done October 28-29 and among 982 likely voters. PPP and Rasmussen Reports showing identical results over identical days…do do do do….

Hogan Claims 5% Lead in MD, Brown/Shaheen Tied in NH, Baker Leads By 3% in MA, Cotton Leads in AR

I really, really want to believe this poll that is being reported by The Weekly Standard for the state of Maryland.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Hogan has a 5-point lead over Democrat Anthony Brown in a surprisingly close race in Maryland, according to a poll conducted on behalf of the Hogan campaign and obtained by THE WEEKLY STANDARD.

The survey of more than 500 likely Maryland voters finds Hogan with 44 percent support, while Brown, the lieutenant governor, has 39 percent support.

The problem is the article makes absolutely no mention of the dates of the poll or who did the poll. My skepticism is also based on what the actual question is and is it a true comparison of the full Maryland Electorate or some weasel question. They have put out results of internal polls before where the results provided is based on only those voters who “have heard the candidate’s positions.” Sorry, I still get can’t aboard this train that Hogan is winning yet. I really, really want to, but an anonymous internal poll is not going to do it for me. American Research Group’s look at the race in New Hampshire shows a dead-heat tie between Brown and Shaheen.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG)
Scott Brown (R) 49%
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49%

This poll was doen October 27-29 among 600 likely voters. In Arkansas, we have two polls showing a developing rout, one comes from Rasmussen Reports and the other comes from the University of Arkansas.

US SENATE – ARKANSAS (Rasmussen)
Tom Cotton (R) 51%
Mark Pryor (D-inc) 44%

US SENATE – ARKANSAS (Rasmussen)
Tom Cotton (R) 49%
Mark Pryor (D-inc) 36%

The Rasmussen poll was done October 27-29 among 967 likely voters. The U of Arkansas poll was done October 21-27 among 568 “very likely” voters. In Massachusetts, Suffolk University and The Boston Herald put Charlie Baker up by 3%.

GOVERNOR – MASSACHUSETTS (Suffolk/Herald)
Charlie Baker (R) 46%
Martha Coakley (D) 43%

October 26-29 “very likely voters”. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling got some more money from a leftist group to produce these results for Colorado.

US SENATE – COLORADO (PPP/LCV)
Mark Udall (D-inc) 48%
Cory Gardner (R) 48%

This poll was done October 28-29 among 573 likely voters. I’ll go back to something I’ve said before, does anyone believe PPP was not going to poll Colorado for free before Election Day if they did not get money from someone? Why would this group waste money on this poll?

Hagan Leads By 3% in NC, Sullivan Leads By 4% in AK, Crist Leads By 3% in FL, Gardner Leads By 7% in CO

Elon University has their view of eh race in North Carolina and it shows Kay Hagan with a 4% lead over Thom Tillis.

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Elon)
Kay Hagan (D-inc) 45%
Thom Tillis (R) 41%

For some reason, they did not explicitly include Sean Haugh as a choice in this poll. This poll was done October 21-25 among 687 likely voters. Meanwhile, Moore Information has been paid money by Dan Sullivan to provide a poll showing Sullivan ahead by 4% in Alaska.

US SENATE – ALASKA (Moore)
Dan Sullivan (R) 42%
Mark Begich (D-inc) 38%

This poll was done October 26-28 among 500 likely voters. In Florida, Quinnipiac University is showing Charlie Crist with a 3% lead over Rick Scott.

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Charlie Crist (D) 43%
Rick Scott (R-inc) 40%
Adrian Wyllie (L) 8%

This poll was done October 22-27 among 817 likely voters. There is better news from Quinnipiac University in Colorado where Cory Gardner holds a 7% lead.

US SENATE – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Cory Gardner (R) 46%
Mark Udall (D-inc) 39%
Steve Shogan (I) 7%

This poll was done October 22-27 among 844 likely voters.

October 29, 2014

Walker Leads By 7% in WI, Perdue/Nunn Tied in GA

The big poll this afternoon has to be the new poll from Marquette Law School that shows Scott Walker surging to a 7% lead in Wisconsin.

GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (MULS)
Scott Walker (R-inc) 50%
Mary Burke (D) 43%

This poll was done October 23-26 among 1164 likely voters. Rasmussen Reports pours some cold water on the earlier poll from Monmouth University and pegs the US Senate race in Georgia as a dead-heat tie.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Rasmussen)
David Perdue (R) 46%
Michelle Nunn (D) 46%

This poll was done October 25-27 among 977 likely voters.

Perdue Leads By 8% in GA, Rounds Leads by 14% in SD, Udall Leads By 1% in CO

Monmouth University drops somewhat of stink bomb into the room with their latest view of the race in Georgia claiming David Perdue is now ahead by 8% over Michelle Nunn.

US SENATE – GEORGIA (Monmouth)
David Perdue (R) 49%
Michelle Nunn (D) 41%
Amanda Swafford (L) 3%

GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Monmouth)
Nathan Deal (R-inc) 48%
Jason Carter (D) 42%
Andrew Hunt (L) 5%

This poll was done October 26-28 among 436 likely voters. This poll lead to this back and forth between Nate Cohn and the Director of Monmouth Polling, Patrick Murray.

Rasmussen Reports adds to the idea that the race in South Dakota is over with another double-digit lead for Mike Rounds.

US SENATE – SOUTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen)
Mike Rounds (R) 45%
Rick Weiland (D) 31%
Larry Pressler (I) 21%

This poll was done, well I don’t know when it was done because as of the time of this post, the article says it was done June 4-5. Some polling firm called Strategies 360 has a poll out for the race in Colorado claiming Mark Udall holds a single percentage-point lead.

US SENATE – COLORADO (S360)
Mark Udall (D-inc) 45%
Cory Gardner (R) 44%

This poll was done October 20-25 among 760 likely voters.

Ernst Leads Braley By 4% in IA, Malloy/Foley Tied in CT

This morning, Quinnipiac University has given us polls for Iowa and Connecticut this morning already.

US SENATE – IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Joni Ernst (R) 49%
Bruce Braley (D) 45%

GOVERNOR – CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac)
Dannel Malloy (D-inc) 43%
Tom Foley (R) 43%
Joe Visconti (I) 7%

Both polls were done October 22-27 among likely voters. Another poll on the gubernatorial race in Colorado should be coming out shortly.

US SENATE 2014

Party Prediction Gain/Loss
GOP 52 7
DEM 45 -8
IND 3 1

US HOUSE 2014

Party Prediction Gain/Loss
GOP 238 4
DEM 197 -4