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February 18, 2019

McSally Leads Kelly By 2% in AZ, Trump Leads Biden By 3% in TX

Mark Kelly has entered the race to take on Martha McSally next year, but according to a new poll from OH Predictive Insights, he would start out behind by 2% to McSally.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (OH Predictive Insights)
Martha McSally (R-inc) 46%
Mark Kelly (D) 44%

Martha McSally (R-inc) 49%
Ruben Gallego (D) 41%

This poll was done February 12-13 among 600 likely voters. Meanwhile in Texas, Public Policy Polling did a poll that shows Donald Trump only ahead of Joe Biden by 3% in the state of Texas while John Cornyn only holds a 2% lead over Bet O’Rourke in a hypothetical US Senate race.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (PPP)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Kamala Harris (D) 40%

US SENATE – TEXAS (PPP)
John Cornyn (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%

Somewhat surprised they did not poll a Trump-O’Rourke match up for President in this poll. This poll was done February 13-14 among 743 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:19 pm
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February 17, 2019

Biden Leads Dems By Double Digits, Trump Leads Weld Among GOP Voters by 60%

Emerson College has put out a new poll on the Presidential race that shows Joe Bide still holding a double-digit lead among Democrats while Trump starts at 85% against just announced potential primary challenger Bill Weld.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 17%
Kamala Harris 15%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Cory Booker 9%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Beto O’Rourke 4%
Sherrod Brown 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 85%
Bill Weld 15%

In the General Election, Trump trails all the Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Kamala Harris (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Beto O’Rourke (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Cory Booker (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Sherrod Brown (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

The poll did include two trial runs including Howard Schultz that shows Schultz helps out Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Kamala Harris (D) 43%
Howard Schultz (I) 12%

This poll was done February 14-16 among registered voters.

February 10, 2019

Biden Leads Dems in IA, NH and SC

Late last week, we received three new polls for the early primary states from Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus showing Joe Biden leading in all three states.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Firehouse/0ptimus)
Joe Biden 25%
Kamala Harris 17%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Bernie Sanders 10%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Beto O’Rourke 4%
Cory Booker 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Firehouse/0ptimus)
Joe Biden 22%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Kamala Harris 13%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Cory Booker 4%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Firehouse/0ptimus)
Joe Biden 36%
Kamala Harris 12%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Cory Booker 5%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

All three polls were done January 31-February 2 among likely voters or caucus goers in each state.

February 6, 2019

Hood Leads Reeves by 2% in MS

A rare poll for this year’s gubernatorial race in Mississippi from Mason-Dixon.

GOVERNOR – MISSISSIPPI (Mason-Dixon)
Jim Hood (D) 44%
Tate Reeves (R) 42%

Jim Hood (D) 40%
Tate Reeves (R) 38%
Bill Waller Jr (I) 9%

GOVERNOR – MISSISSIPPI – GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Tate Reeves 62%
Robert Foster 9%

This poll was done January 30-February 1 among 625 registered voters. This poll has been added to The Hedgehog Report PollWatch page for Mississippi.

February 4, 2019

Biden Leads National Primary Race By 13%

We have another national Democratic poll that continues to show Joe Biden leading the race with Bernie Sanders in second and Kamala Harris surging into third. The latest numbers from Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Joe Biden 29%
Bernie Sanders 16%
Kamala Harris 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Beto O’Rourke 7%
Mike Bloomberg 4%
Cory Booker 4%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Eric Holder 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Julián Castro 1%
John Delaney <1%
Jay Inslee <1%
Terry McAuliffe <1%
Pete Buttigieg 0%

This poll was done January 25-27 among 313 registered Democratic voters.

February 2, 2019

Biden Leads Dems and Trump in IA, Trump Leads All Other Dems

Joe Biden leads the Democratic field in Iowa by double digits with Kamala Harris in second place according t a new poll from Emerson College.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Emerson)
Joe Biden 29%
Kamala Harris 18%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Cory Booker 4%
Sherrod Brown 4%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Julian Castro 2%
john Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Pete Buttegieg 0%
Andrew Yang 0%

When it comes to the General Election, Donald Trump leads every Democrat except for Joe Biden.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 55%
Nancy Pelosi (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 55%
Sherrod Brown (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Kirsten Gillirand (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Kamala Harris (D) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 48%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Bernie Sanders (D) 50%

Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Clearly they were pushing everyone to pick one or the other and with rounding, it caused a few of the races to go over 100%. Similar to what we saw this morning, Howard Schultz hurts Democrats if he jumps in as an Independent. This poll picked the Trump-Warren match up and added in Schultz.

PRESIDENT- IOWA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%
Howard Schultz (I) 11%

This poll was done January 30-February 2 among 831 registered voters.

Schultz Helps Trump in Three-Way Race

We have a new poll from Change Research that shows what type of impact Howard Schultz will have on the 2020 election should be run as an Independent candidate in a three-way race. The numbers below were the initial ballot test. The article linked does indicate thy then added biographical information about Schultz and the numbers turn even more in Schultz’s favor.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Change Research)

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 43%
Howard Schultz (I) 6%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Kamala Harris (D) 43%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 3%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 43%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

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Kamala Harris (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

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Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

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Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

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Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

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This poll was done January 31-February 1 among 1338 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 3:59 pm
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February 1, 2019

Trump Trails in Michigan

The Detroit News and The Glengariff Group released a General Election poll earlier this week that shows Donald Trump trailing four Democrats in a bid to win in the state of Michigan again in 2020.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group)
Joe Biden (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Kamala Harris (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Bernie Sanders (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

This poll was done January 24-26 among 600 likely voters.

Cory Booker Jumps In For 2020

I’ll give him a post of his own like I did the others:

Posted by Dave at 11:14 am
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January 29, 2019

Edwards Has Large Lead in LA Gov Race

We have a new poll for the gubernatorial race in Louisiana that shows Democrat Jon Bel Edwards in strong position for re-election, coming up 5% shy of winning the race outright during the primary. The results from a polling outfit called LJR Custom Strategies that was paid for by a Democratic Party-leaning group.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – PRIMARY (LJR)
Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 45%
Ralph Abraham (R) 17%
Eddie Rispone (R) 4%

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA – RUNOFF (LJR)
Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 47%
Ralph Abraham (R) 27%

Jon Bel Edwards (D-inc) 47%
Eddie Rispone (R) 19%

This poll was done January 14-27 among 600 likely voters. Don;t forget, you can see all the public polls thus far at The Hedgehog Report PollWatch Page for Louisiana.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS