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August 29, 2016

Clinton Leads Trump in MI, PA and AZ / Tied in OH

Emerson College has released what can only be considered favorable polls for Donald Trump in the states of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Clinton 45%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Emerson)
Clinton 43%
Trump 43%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Emerson)
Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

The other good news from this poll is the Republican incumbent US Senators may be successfully distancing themselves from Trump.

US SENATE – OHIO (Emerson)
Rob Portman (R-inc) 40%
Ted Strickland (D) 25%

US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Emerson)
Pat Toomey (R-inc) 46%
Katie McGinty (D) 39%

The OH poll was done August 25-27 and the MI and PA polls were done August 25-28 among likely voters. Meanwhile, not nearly as good news in Arizona according to a new poll from OH Predictive Insights.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (OHPI)
Clinton 40%
Trump 39%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

This poll was done August 25-27 among 728 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 6:58 pm
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August 27, 2016

Speechless

I got somewhat behind in the polls and was going to spend some time catching up, but then this happened:

The polls almost don’t matter at this point….

August 24, 2016

Clinton Leads By 2% in NC, Trump Leads By 1% in MO

Monmouth University has released a new poll for the state of North Carolina that shows Hillary Clinton with a slim lead over Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Monmouth)
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R) 42%
Gary Johnson (L) 7%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Monmouth)
Richard Burr (R-inc) 45%
Deborah Ross (D) 43%

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (Monmouth)
Roy Copper (D) 52%
Pat McCrory (R-inc) 43%
Lon Cecil (L) 3%

This poll was done August 20-23 among 401 likely voters. Yesterday Monmouth also released a poll for the state of Missouri showing Clinton competitive in this state that should be easily in the Republican if not for Donald Trump being the face of the party.

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (Monmouth)
Donald Trump (R) 44%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Gary Johnson (L) 8%

US SENATE – MISSOURI (Monmouth)
Roy Blunt (R-inc) 48%
Jason Kander (D) 43%
Jonathan Dine (L) 7%

GOVERNOR – MISSOURI (Monmouth)
Chris Koster (D) 51%
Eric Greitens (R) 40%
Cisse Spragins (L) 3%

This poll was done August 19-22 among 401 likely voters.

August 23, 2016

Clinton Leads Trump By 4% in OH and 16% in VA

Now that we have a bunch of poll stating pretty much the same thing, it seems like Rob Portman might be able to break free from the Donald Trump lead weight around his ankle. The latest to show Portman doing much better than Trump in Ohio is Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Monmouth)
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Donald Trump (R) 39%
Gary Johnson (L) 10%
Jill Stein (G) 1%

US SENATE – OHIO (Monmouth)
Rob Portman (R-inc) 48%
Ted Strickland (D) 40%

This poll was done August 18-21 among 402 likely voters. Meanwhile in Virginia, it is becoming an outright rout according to Roanoke College.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Roanoke)
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R) 32%
Gary Johnson (L) 8%
Jill Stein (G) 3%

This poll was done August 7-17 among 803 likely voters.

August 22, 2016

Tight Races in NC and SC

This is an actual Tweet this morning from the current face of the Republican Party.

And yet the leadership of the Republican party stills supports this man to be President of the United States.

Gravis Marketing spit out two polls over the weekend, one for North Carolina and one for South Carolina.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Gravis)
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R) 43%

Donald Trump (R) 39%
Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
Gary Johnson (L) 10%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Gravis)
Donald Trump (R) 46%
Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Donald Trump (R) 41%
Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
Gary Johnson (L) 7%
Jill Stein (G) 3%

Both of these polls were done August 15-17 among registered voters in each state.

August 21, 2016

Race Tied in IA, Clinton Leads By 6% in OH

Today I was accused, due to my refusal to support Donald Trump as a voter in the state of Maryland, that I single-handily will be the reason that Hillary Clinton will be President. It will be all my fault. Yes, apparently I have that much power….

Meanwhile, CBS and YouGov are out with their usual occasional poll from the “swing states”, this time giving us numbers in Ohio and Iowa.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (CBS/YouGov)
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
Donald Trump (R) 40%
Gary Johnson (L) 7%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

US SENATE – IOWA (CBS/YouGov)
Chuck Grassley (r-inc) 45%
Patty Judge (D) 38%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (CBS/YouGov)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R) 40%
Gary Johnson (L) 6%
Jill Stein (G) 2%

US SENATE – OHIO (CBS/YouGov)
Rob Portman (R-inc) 46%
Ted Strickland (D) 39%

At this point, the biggest hope is Trump does not drag down Republicans in the US Senate and this poll seems to suggest a lot of ticket splitting going on, which is good. Both polls were done August 17-19 among 987 likely voters in IA and 997 likely voters in OH. One polling organization that has become a favorite of Trump supporters is The Los Angeles Times that is going against the current conventional wisdom and shows Donald Trump with a national lead in today’s edition of the poll.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (LA Times)
Donald Trump (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

This poll was done August 14-20 among 2551 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 3:16 pm
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August 19, 2016

Trump/Clinton Tied in GA, Clinton Leads By 2% in NV

Catching up from yesterday and starting with another poll from the state of Georgia and Opinion Savvy showing Donald Trump turning once solid red states into swing states.

PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (OS)
Donald Trump (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Gary Johnson (L) 11%

This poll was done August 17th among likely voters. Meanwhile, Suffolk University has a poll in Nevada showing Trump stronger than would be expected.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Suffolk)
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R) 42%
Gary Johnson (L) 5%

US SENATE – NEVADA (Suffolk)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) 37%
Joe Heck (R) 37%

This poll was done August 15-17 among 500 likely voters.

August 17, 2016

Clinton Leads in CO, IA, VA, MI / Trump Leads in IN and MS

This morning, Quinnipiac University released more polls in what used to be considered “swing states” when Donald Trump was not the face of the Republican Party.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Donald Trump (R) 33%
Gary Johnson (L) 16%
Jill Stein (G) 7%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R) 44%

Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Donald Trump (R) 39%
Gary Johnson (L) 12%
Jill Stein (G) 3%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)
Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R) 38%

Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R) 34%
Gary Johnson (L) 11%
Jill Stein (G) 5%

These polls were done August 9-16 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile in Indiana, Republicans are on the verge of losing a seat that was probably not even on the radar a few months ago according to a new poll from Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – INDIANA (Monmouth)
Donald Trump (R) 47%
Hillary Clinton (D) 36%
Gary Johnson (L) 10%

US SEANTE – INDIANA (Monmouth)
Evan Bayh (D) 48%
Todd Young (R) 415

This poll was done August 13-16 among 403 likely voters. In Michigan, Clinton also is putting away this state early in a new poll from Fox 2/Mitchell Research.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Mitchell)
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R) 39%

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R) 33%
Gary Johnson (L) 9%
Jill Stein (G) 5%

This poll was done August 9-10 among 1314 likely voters. On the bright side, at least Donald Trump has a lead in the state of Mississippi according to Magellan Strategies.

PRESIDENT – MISSISSIPPI (Magellan)
Donald Trump (R) 54%
Hillary Clinton (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R) 52%
Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
Jill Stein (G) 6%
Gary Johnson (L) 3%

This poll was done August 11th among 1084 likely voters.

August 16, 2016

Trump Leads Clinton By Only 6% in TX, Trails Clinton by 9% in FL

It looks like Republicans are going to struggle to even keep the state of Texas in their electoral column with Donald Trump as the face of the party according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (PPP)
Donald Trump (R) 50%
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R) 44%
Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
Gary Johnson (L) 6%
Jill Stein (G) 2%
Evan McMullin (I) 0%

This poll was done August 12-14 among 944 likely voters. Let’s be glad Marco Rubio decided to jump back in the US Senate race in Florida as even with Donald Trump as a lead weight dragging him down, Rubio might be able to keep this seat in GOP hands according to Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Monmouth)
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R) 39%
Gary Johnson (L) 6%
Jill Stein (G) 1%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Monmouth)
Marco Rubio (R-inc) 48%
Patrick Murphy (D) 43%

This poll was done August 12-15 among 402 likely voters.

WaPo: Clinton Leads Trump By 8% in VA

It is becoming increasingly clear with Donald Trump as the face of the Republican Party, Virginia will not be a swing state this year. The latest evidence of this is the latest poll from The Washington Post.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (WaPo)
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R) 39%
Gary Johnson (L) 9%
Jill Stein (G) 3%

This poll was done August 11-14 among likely voters.