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February 21, 2020

Sander Dominates/Three-Way Battle for 2nd between Buttigieg-Warren-Biden in NV

We are getting the final polls for tomorrow’s caucus in Nevada and here is the latest poll from an outfit called Data for Progress.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – DEM CAUCUS (Data for Progress)
Bernie Sanders 35%
Elizabeth Warren 16%
Pete Buttigieg 16%
Joe Biden 15%
Amy Klobuchar 8%
Tom Steyer 8%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%

This poll was done February 19-21 among 1010 likely caucus voters and goers.

February 20, 2020

Sanders Leads By 13% in NV, Biden Leads By 5% in SC

A lot of polls out today including a set of General Election polls for the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin from Quinnipiac University that shows while Democrats might be able to regain the votes from PA and MI, Donald Trump is opening up a sizable lead in Wisconsin. I won’t spend the time to post the details, you can see those polls here. We have a new poll from Emerson College for this weekend’s caucus in Nevada that shows Bernie Sanders with a double-digit lead over second place Pete Buttigieg.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – DEM CAUCUS (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 30%
Pete Buttigieg 17%
Joe Biden 16%
Elizabeth Warren 12%
Amy Klobuchar 11%
Tom Steyer 10%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%

This poll was done February 19-20 among 425 likely caucus goers. Meanwhile Winthrop University has a new poll for the following weekend’s primary in South Carolina that has Joe Bide clinging to a 5% lead over Bernie Sanders.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Winthrop)
Joe Biden 24%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Tom Steyer 15%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%

This poll was done February 9-19 among 443 likely primary voters.

February 19, 2020

Sanders Surges Into Tie With Biden in SC

If Joe Biden is hoping South Carolina will be the state that finally launches his campaign ahead of Bernie Sanders, he might not like these latest numbers from Change Research where Bernie Sanders is now tied with Biden for the lead.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Change)
Bernie Sanders 23%
Joe Biden 23%
Tom Steyer 20%
Pete Buttigieg 15%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Amy Klobuchar 8%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%

This poll was done February 12-14 among 1015 likely primary voters. Michael Bloomberg is not on the ballot in South Carolina and was not included in this poll.

Another National Poll, Another Double-Digit Lead for Sanders

Add ABC News and The Washington PostABC News and The Washington PostABC News and The Washington Post to those now showing Bernie Sanders taking command of the Democratic primary for the nomination.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (ABC/WaPo)
Bernie Sanders 32%
Joe Biden 17%
Mike Bloomberg 14%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Amy Klobuchar 6%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%

How pissed off do you think Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar must be after spending a year just building up their names to be seen as viable to a national audience (and to a lesser degree Joe Biden since he was already pretty well known), only to see Mike Bloomberg jump in, spend zero time in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and immediately move into a legitimate third place (second place in some national polls).

Posted by Dave at 7:29 am
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February 18, 2020

Three More Polls Give Sanders National Lead with Bloomberg Surging to Second

Adding to the NPR poll this morning, we have three more national primary polls that show very similar results with only Emerson College showing Bernie Sanders lead in single digits instead of double digits. The other two polls come from Survey USA and NBC News/Wall Street Journal.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (NBC/WSJ)
Bernie Sanders 27%
Joe Biden 15%
Michael Bloomberg 14%
Elizabeth Warren 14%
Pete Buttigieg 13%
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Survey USA)
Bernie Sanders 29%
Joe Biden 18%
Michael Bloomberg 18%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 29%
Joe Biden 22%
Michael Bloomberg 14%
Elizabeth Warren 12%
Pete Buttigieg 8%
Amy Klobuchar 6%
Tulsi Gabbard 4%
Tom Steyer 3%

The Survey USA poll was done February 13-17 among 1022 likely voters. The NBC/WSJ poll was done February 14-17 among 426 likely voters. The Emerson College was done February 16-18 among 573 likely voters.

Sanders Leads By Double Digits/Bloomberg Surges to 2nd Place Nationally

The much anticipated poll from Marist College and NPR came out this morning that included Michael Bloomberg and in it, Bloomberg jumps to 2nd place overall but still trails Bernie sanders by double digits.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (NPR/Marist)
Bernie Sanders 31%
Michael Bloomberg 19%
Joe Biden 15%
Elizabeth Warren 12%
Amy Klobuchar 9%
Pete Buttigieg 8%
Tom Steyer 25
Tulsi Gabbard 1%

This poll was done February 13-16 among 527 likely Democratic primary voters.

This entire Democratic primary process is starting to remind me a lot of the Republican primary fight in 2016. There were those who were opposed to Trump that were just hoping for someone/anyone to rise who could take on Trump one-on-one thinking that would weaken him but it seemed like every time time someone dropped out to narrow the field or had a momentary rise in the polls, Trump’s position in the primary only got stronger. I am starting to sense that with Sanders’ position in the Democratic primary a little bit as even with the supposed emergence of Michael Bloomberg, Sanders still has 31% and still holds a double-digit lead nationally On top of that, he basically tied for a win Iowa, won New Hampshire, and has a good chance of winning in Nevada.

Posted by Dave at 9:56 am
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February 17, 2020

Steyer Leads/Klobuchar Second in New NV Poll

It’s a work holiday for some but not all. This new poll from some outfit called Point Blank Political for the state of Nevada seems to have some people questioning the legitimacy of it all over Twitter.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – DEM CAUCUS (Point Blank Political)
Tom Steyer 19%
Amy Klobuchar 16%
Joe Biden 14%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Pete Buttigieg 13%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%

I guess this Saturday we will know for sure how good this outfit really is if the actual results mirror this poll. Lookin at their website and the “contact us” page, they appear to be based somewhere near Orlando, Florida. This poll was done February 13-15 among 256 likely caucus goers.

Posted by Dave at 3:02 pm
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February 16, 2020

Blommberg Takes Lead in National Democratic Primary

We have a new poll from Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports that shows Michael Bloomberg taking the lead nationally among Democratic primary voters.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Michael Bloomberg 26%
Joe Biden 22%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Elizabet Warren 6%
Everyone Else 2% combined

This poll was done February 12-13 among 1000 likely voters.

February 15, 2020

Sanders Leads by 7% in NV, Biden Leads by 8% in SC

The next contest in the Democratic primary race is next Saturday’s caucus in Nevada and a new poll from the Las Vegas Review-Journal has Bernie Sanders with a single-digit lead over Joe Biden.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – DEM CAUCUS (LVRJ)
Bernie Sanders 25%
Joe Biden 18%
Elizabeth Warren 13%
Tom Steyer 11%
Pete Buttigieg 10%
Amy Klobuchar 10%
Others 5% Combined

This poll was done February 11-13 among 413 likely caucus goers. Meanwhile, one week after that, we get the first state Joe Biden might actually be able to win. East Carolina University has a new poll showing Joe Biden with an 8% lead over Bernie Sanders.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLIA – DEM PRIMARY (ECU)
Joe Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 20%
Tom Steyer 14%
Pete Buttigieg 8%
Amy Klobuchar 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Michael Bloomberg 6%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%

This poll was done February 12-13 among 703 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:50 pm
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February 11, 2020

New Hampshire Election Night Thread

Will Sanders win by double digits?

Will Amy Klobuchar manage to grab third place?

Who will finish lower, Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren?

Polls close at 7pm.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS