2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 188
Biden : 350
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2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 50
DEM : 48
IND : 2

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    July 6, 2020

    Incumbent GOP US Senators Trail in ME and IA

    Earlier today we received a new poll from Public Policy Polling for the state of Maine that has Susan Collins trailing Democrat Sara Gideon by 4%.

    PRESIDENT – MAINE (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 53%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MAINE (PPP)
    Sara Gideon (D) 46%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 42%

    This poll was done July 2-3 among 1022 registered voters. In Pennsylvania, The Trafalgar Group has Joe Biden up by 5% over Donald Trump in a new poll today.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done June 29-July 2 among 1062 likely voters. And finally for the moment, a new poll by GQR Research in the state of Iowa has another Republican US Senator trailing her Democratic opponent.

    US SENATE – IOWA (GQR)
    Theresa Greenfield (D) 49%
    Joni Ernst (R-inc) 47%

    This poll was done June 23-28 among 800 likely voters.

    July 4, 2020

    Trump/Biden Tied in FL

    Happy 4th of July to all! This morning we have a new poll from The Trafalgar Group showing a tie between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the all-important state of Florida (technically in the results, Trump leads by 0.04%.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    This poll was done June 29-July 2 among 1072 likely voters.

    July 2, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in TX By 2%

    We have another poll this morning just posted by Public Policy Polling that was done for by EMILY’s List in the state of Texas that has Joe Biden now ahead of Donald Trump in the state of Texas.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – TEXAS (PPP)
    John Cornyn (R-inc) 42%
    MJ Hegar (D) 35%

    This poll was done June 24-25 among 729 registered voters. Hegar still has to win the primary runoff for the Democrats but he is leading all the public polling I have seen.

    Bullock Leads Daines in MT

    Good morning! We have a new poll from the state of Montana from the University of Montana that has Donald Trump up by double digits over Joe Biden. On the downside for Republicans, current Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is leading the current Republican US Senator incumbent Steve Daines in a bid to flip this seat to Democrats.

    PRESIDENT – MONTANA (University of Montana)
    Donald Trump (R) 52%
    Joe Biden (D) 38%

    US SENATE – MONTANA (University of Montana)
    Steve Bullock (D) 47%
    Steve Daines (R-inc) 43%

    US HOUSE – MONTANA – CD AL (University of Montana)
    Matt Rosendale (R) 45%
    Kathleen Williams (D) 37%

    GOVERNOR – MONTANA (University of Montana)
    Greg Gianforte (R) 46%
    Mike Cooney (D) 36%

    This poll was done June 17-26 among 517 registered voters.

    Posted by Dave at 7:16 am
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    July 1, 2020

    Trump and McSally Surge To Leads in AZ

    Since February 9th, by my count, there have been 16 consecutive polls for the US Senate race in Arizona that has shown Democrat Mark Kelly with a lead over Republican incumbent Martha McSally, in some cases by double digits. Over that same period, 15 out of the 16 most recent public polls has also shown Joe Biden over Donald Trump. Today Gravis Marketing was given money by OAN and found a different electorate in Arizona and claims both Martha McSally and Donald Trump are ahead of their Democratic opponents by 4%.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Gravis)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Gravis)
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 46%
    Mark Kelly (D) 42%

    This poll was done June 27th among 527 likely voters. Meanwhile another poll from Public Policy Polling came out today, this time for the state of Michigan.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (PPP)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 47%
    John James (R) 39%

    This poll was done June 26-27 among 1237 registered voters.

    Posted by Dave at 9:29 pm
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    Biden Leads Trump by 17% in CO, 1% in AZ, Dems Lead Senate Races in Both States

    Colorado is going to be a tough state for Donald Trump this year and it appears Cory Gardner is well on his way to losing this seat for Republicans according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling.

    PRESIDENT – COLORADO (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 56%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 39%

    US SENATE – COLORADO (PPP)
    John Hickenlooper (D) 51%
    Cory Gardner (R-inc) 40%

    This poll was done June 29-30 among 840 registered voters. Meanwhile in Arizona, a new poll from Data Orbital shows slightly better numbers for Republicans than the poll earlier today from Change Research.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Data Orbital)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Data Orbital)
    Mark Kelly (D) 47%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 41%

    This poll was done June 27-29 among 600 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 3:19 pm
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    Biden Leads Trump in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA and WI

    A new poll out this morning from Change Research for the same six states we saw last week from Siena College.
    The numbers in this poll are a little better for Donald Trump although he still trails in all six states and the results are worse for Trump in all the states except for Florida from the last Change Research poll in mid-June.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    At the US Senate level, as before Democrats are leading in all three states being contested from above, including two seats currently held by Republicans.

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 49%
    John James (R) 42%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Mark Kelly (D-inc) 53%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 51%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 41%

    These polls were all done June 26-28 among likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 7:34 am
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    June 30, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 2% in MO

    Could Donald Trump lose in Missouri? A new poll from the left-leaning Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group paid for by the Democratic candidate for Governor in Missouri is suggesting that.

    PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (GHYRG)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    GOVERNOR – MISSOURI (GHYRG)
    Mike Parson (R-inc) 47%
    Nicole Galloway (D) 40%

    This poll was done June 16-22 among 800 likely voters.

    Biden Lead Trump By 5% in PA and 25% in NY

    In the state of Pennsylvania, Susquehanna Polling and Research released a new poll for the state of Pennsylvania that has Joe Biden up on Donald Trump by 5%.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (SPR)
    Joe Biden (D) 46%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

    This poll was done June 15-23 among 705 likely voters. No surprise in the state of New York where Biden is crushing Trump by 25% according to Siena College.

    PRESIDENT – NEW YORK (Siena)
    Joe Biden (D) 57%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 32%

    This poll was done June 23-25 among 806 registered voters.

    Posted by Dave at 8:35 am
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    June 29, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 4% in GA, Trump Leads Biden By 1% in WI

    Two polls out over the past two days that make absolutely no sense when put out side by side. Apparently at the same time Joe Biden is beating Donald Trump by 4% in Georgia according to Public Policy Polling, he is trailing Trump in Wisconsin according to The Trafalgar Group.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Traflagar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    Meanwhile at the US Senate level, Republicans are probably hoping for a top-two finish for their two top candidates to avoid a toss up race in a runoff.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – PRIMARY (PPP)
    Doug Collins (R) 23%
    Kelly Loeffler (R-inc) 21%

    Raphael Warnock (D) 20%
    Matt Lieberman (D) 11%
    Ed Tarver (D) 3%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – RUNOFF (PPP)
    Doug Collins (R) 43%
    Raphael Warnock (D) 41%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – RUNOFF (PPP)
    Raphael Warnock (D) 43%
    Kelly Loeffler (R-inc) 40%

    In testing they do not have a Collins-Loeffler runoff match up. The WI poll was done June 23-25 among 1021 likely voters and the GA poll was done June 25-26 among 734 registered voters.