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October 17, 2019

Warren/Biden Tied in IA, Biden Leads Trump By 2% in OH

Today we received a new poll from Emerson College that shows Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden tied for the Democratic caucus lead but Bernie Sanders actually being the stronger General Election candidate in the state of Iowa.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Emerson)
Elizabeth Warren 23%
Joe Biden 23%
Pete Buttigieg 16%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Andrew Yang 5%
Steve Bullock 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Kamala Harris 2%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 49%

This poll was done October 13-16 among 888 likely voters and 317 likely Democratic caucus goers. Meanwhile in Ohio, Public Policy Polling released a new poll showing Biden is the stronger candidate for Democrats.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Bernie Sanders (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Kamala Harris (D) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Pete Buttigieg (D) 43%

This poll was done October 10-11 among 776 likely voters.

Dead Heat Tie in KY Gov Race

Mason-Dixon Polling has a new poll out for the gubernatorial race in Kentucky being held next month and it shows the incumbent Republican tied with his Democratic opponent.

GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Mason-Dixon)
Matt Bevin (R-inc) 46%
Andy Beshear (D) 46%
John Hicks (L) 1%

This poll was done October 10-13 among 625 likely voters. Public polling is rather limited for this race, so it is hard to even determine if there are any trend lines to watch. Here are the polls I am aware of.

Posted by Dave at 3:38 pm
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October 15, 2019

Biden/Warren Lead Trump By Double Digits in ME

Public Policy Polling gives us a new poll for the state of Maine, where Donald Trump did manage to pick off an electoral vote in 2016.

PRESIDENT – MAINE (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Bernie Sanders (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Pete Buttigieg (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Kamala Harris (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

This poll was done October 11-13 among 939 registered voters.

October 13, 2019

Warren/Biden Tied in IA, Warren leads in NH, Biden Leads in SC

CBS News and YouGov release polls for slew of states this morning. Looking at the three early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Joe Biden is in danger of losing the first two states before he gets to the one state that he still leads in.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (CBS/YouGov)
Elizabeth Warren 22%
Joe Biden 22%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Kamala Harris 5%
Tom Steyer 3%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Cory Booker 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CBS/YouGov)
Elizabeth Warren 32%
Joe Biden 24%
Bernie Sanders 17%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Andrew Yang 5%
Kamala Harris 4%
Tom Steyer 4%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (CBS/YouGov)
Joe Biden 43%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Bernie Sanders 16%
Kamala Harris 7%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

These polls were all done October 3-11 among 729 likely caucus goers in IA, 506 likely primary voters in NH and 915 likely primary voters in SC.

October 12, 2019

LA Governor – Election Night Thread

It has been a while since we had a simple Election Night open thread. Tonight, there is really no chance a Republican is going to win outright, so the real question is whether the voters give Democrat John Bel Edwards another term outright tonight or will he come up short of the 50% threshold and we will have a runoff election later.

The polls close at 9pm EDT. The results from the Associated Press will be found here.

Posted by Dave at 8:00 pm
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October 10, 2019

Trump Trails Biden/Warren/Sanders in NC

Yesterday Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the state of North Carolina that shows Donald Trump trailing both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie sanders (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Kamala Harris (D) 475
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 475
Pete Buttigieg (D) 46%

This poll was done October 4-6 among 963 registered voters.

October 8, 2019

Edwards Falls Short of 50% in Three Polls in LA

We are only 4 days from the Gubernatiorial primary in Louisiana and in the past few days, there has been three separate polls showing Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards well ahead of the main two Republicans, but still short of the 50% level he needs to avoid a runoff. The polls come from Emerson College, JMC Analytics, and Mason-Dixon.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (Emerson)
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 48%
Eddie Rispone (R) 25%
Ralph Abraham (R) 19%
Gary Landrieu (I) 4%
Patrick Landry (R) 3%
Oscar Dantzler (D) 1%

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (JMC)
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 45%
Eddie Rispone (R) 20%
Ralph Abraham (R) 19%
Oscar Dantzler (D) 2%
Gary Landrieu (I) 1%
Patrick Landry (R) <1%

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (Mason-Dixon)
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 45%
Eddie Rispone (R) 22%
Ralph Abraham (R) 17%
Gary Landrieu (I) 4%
Patrick Landry (R) 2%

Mason-Dixon did provide some runoff polls as well and it shows Edwards would beat either Rispone or Abraham, although Rispone currently gives Republicans a better chance.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (Mason-Dixon)
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 53%
Ralph Abraham (R) 38%

John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 51%
Eddie Rispone (R) 42%

The Emerson poll was done October 4-7 among 467 likely voters. The JMC poll was done October 3-5 among 600 likely voters. The Mason-Dixon poll was done October 1-4 among 625 likely voters.

October 4, 2019

Both Trump and Pence Trails Top Dems in OH

Yesterday Emerson College gave us a new poll for the state of Ohio that shows Trump trailing in a state Trump absolutely needs to win to win re-election. And with the chance that impeachment might cause Trump’s removal, I might have to start tracking Mike Pence as a Republican nominee and Emerson College shows even that might not make a difference for Republicans.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Bernie Sanders (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Joe Biden (D) 54%
Mike Pence (R) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Mike Pence (R) 49%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Mike Pence (R) 49%

This poll was done September 29-October 2 among 837 registered voters.

October 2, 2019

Warren Leads in NH and Nationally/Biden Dominates in SC

Saint Anselm College has released a new poll for the state of New Hampshire that shows Elizabeth Warren a single-percentage-point ahead of Joe Biden.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Saint Anselm)
Elizabeth Warren 25%
Joe Biden 24%
Bernie Sanders 11%
Pete Buttigieg 10%
Kamala Harris 5%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 3%
Andrew Yang 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done September 25-29 among 423 registered primary voters. meanwhile in South Carolina, Winthrop College shows Joe Biden with a strong lead.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Winthrop)
Joe Biden 37%
Elizabeth Warren 17%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Kamala Harris 7%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Andrew Yang 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done September 21-30 among 462 registered Democratic primary voters. On teh national level, we now have Monmouth University showing Elizabeth Warren opening a national lead.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Elizabeth Warren 28%
Joe Biden 25%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Pete Buttigieg 5%
Kamala Harris 5%
Marianne Williamson 2%
Andrew Yang 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done September 23-29 among registered Democratic primary voters.

September 29, 2019

Biden Dominates Dems in SC, Three-Way Battle in NV

CNN released new polls today for the early primary states of South Carolina and Nevada that shows Joe Biden with a healthy lead in South Carolina, but a tight three-way race in the caucuses in Nevada.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (CNN)
Joe Biden 37%
Elizabeth Warren 16%
Bernie Sanders 11%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Kamala Harris 3%
Tom Steyer 3%
Cory Booker 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NEVADA – DEM CAUCUS (CNN)
Joe Biden 22%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Kamala Harris 5%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Tom Steyer 4%
Andrew Yang 3%
Cory Booker 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

Both polls were done September 22-26 among 406 likely voters in SC and 324 likely caucus goers in NV.

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