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    September 17, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Two New Polls in VA

    Two new polls in the last couple days in the state of Virginia have the gubernatorial race at a 3% and 4% lead for Terry McAuliffe. The polls come from The Washington Post/George Mason and Emerson College.

    GOVERNOR-VIRGINIA (WaPo/George Mason)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%

    GOVERNOR-VIRGINIA (Emerson)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 45%

    The WaPo/Mason poll was done September 7-13 among 728 likely while the Emerson poll was done September 13-14 among 778 likely voters.

    September 14, 2021

    Election Night – California Recall

    While I posted a few polls here and there for the recall election in California, I did not track them formally especially after it was becoming clear in poll after poll that the attempt to recall Gavin Newsom was going to fail and fail miserably. I guess there is always a chance but tonight might be more of a whimper with Gavin Newsom maintaining his gubernatorial seat easily even if Republican Larry Elder comes out as the clear winner to have replaced him should it go the other way.

    One wonders if Republicans had managed to come up with a more publicly favorable candidate who people could rally around like they did in 2003 with Arnold Schwarzenegger would this election this evening have turned out differently.

    Polls close at 11pm EDT (8pm PDT)

    September 10, 2021

    Youngkin Ties McAuliffe in VA

    I’ve pointed out in some previous posts about how there have been no public polls showing Republican Glenn Youngkin ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. Well that changed this week with a new poll from WPA Intelligence that shows a tied race in the head-to-head match up and shows Youngkin edging ahead when other candidates are added to the mix.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (WPA)
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (WPA)
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
    Princess Blanding (L) 3%

    This poll was done August 30-September 2 among 734 likely voters.

    September 6, 2021

    Newsom Keeping Job Leads By Double Digits in CA

    The votes will be counted a little more than a week from now and the latest poll from The Trafalgar Group shows Gavin Newsom looking more and more like he will be able to finish this term.

    RECALL CA GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOM< (Trafalgar)
    Keep 53%
    Remove 43%

    CALIFORNIA – GOVERNOR – RECALL REPLACEMENT (Trafalgar)
    Larry Elder (R) 32%
    Dan Paffrath (D) 13%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 4%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 4%
    Jacqueline McGowan (D) 3%
    John Cox (R) 3%
    Caitlyn Jenner 1%

    This poll was done September 2-4 among 1079 likely voters.

    September 3, 2021

    DeSantis leads Fried/Crist by 3% in FL, Trails Biden By Double Digits in 2024

    We have a new poll out of Florida from RMG Research that shows Ron DeSantis holding a 3% lead over both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried in his bid for another term.

    GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (RMG Research)
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 41%
    Nikki Fried (D) 38%

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 41%
    Charlie Crist (D) 38%

    The best part of this press release may be what was included at the bottom:

    Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

    This poll was done August 21-28 among 1000 registered voters. DeSantis is not fairing nearly as well at the national level when compared to the former President in a match up against Joe Biden. The new numbers from Emerson College shows Donald Trump a single-percentage point ahead of Biden while DeSantis trails by double digits.

    PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
    Donald Trump (R) 47%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 46%

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 48%
    Ron DeSantis (R) 36%

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 42%
    Mitt Romney (R) 23%

    This poll was done August 30-September 1 among 1200 registered voters.

    September 2, 2021

    Ciattarelli Within 1% of Murphy in NJ, “Keep Newsom” Stretches Lead In Two More Polls

    Could the gubernatorial race in New Jersey be closer than the race in Virginia? A new poll from Fabrizio Lee and Associates shows the race down to a single percentage point.

    GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (FLA)
    Phil Murphy (D-inc) 46%
    Jack Ciattarelli (R) 45%

    This poll was done August 24-29 among 600 likely voters. Meanwhile in California, two new polls show that keeping Newsom appears to be more and more likely. These two new polls come from Public Policy Institute of California and Trafalgar Group.

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL ELECTION (PPIC)
    Keep 58%
    Remove 39%

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL ELECTION (Trafalgar)
    Keep 52%
    Remove 44%

    The PPIC poll was done August 20-29 among 1200 likely voters. The Trafalgar poll wa done August 26-29 among 1088 likely voters.

    August 31, 2021

    Keeping Newsom Leads By 8% in CA, McAuliffe Leads Two More Polls in VA

    Is the attempt to recall Governor Gavin Newsom starting to fizzle. It seems most of the polling has either shown the recall effort to be at worst even and in many cases favorable to Newsom maintaining his job. The latest comes from Survey USA which has the “Keep” leading the “Remove” by 8%.

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL GAVIN NEWSOM (Survey USA)
    Keep 51%
    Remove 43%

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL REPLACEMENT (Survey USA)
    Larry Elder (R) 27%
    John Cox (R) 6%
    Kevin Paffrath (D) 6%
    Holly Baade (D) 5%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 5%
    Brandon Ross (D) 5%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 5%
    Everyone Else 3% or less

    This poll was done August 26-28 among 816 likely voters. Meanwhile in Virginia, two more polls showing Terry McAuliffe ahead of Glenn Youngkin although the poll from Trafalgar Group has it within a single percent age point while Monmouth University shows a 5% lead for McAuliffe.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Trafalgar)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Monmouth)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 42%

    Trafalgar Group completed their latest poll between August 26-29 among 1074 likely voters and Monmouth University did their poll between August 24-29 among 802 registered voters. Glenn Youngkin has still yet to lead a single public poll in the Virginia gubernatorial race since the General election period began.

    August 26, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads By 6% and 9% In Two New Polls in VA

    Two more polls from the state of Virginia showing Terry McAuliffe with a lead over Glenn Youngkin. These come from Change Research and Christopher Newport University.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Change Research)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 43%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (CNU)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 41%

    Change Research completed their latest poll between August 17-21 among 1653 likely voters and Christopher Newport University did their poll between August 15-23 among 800 likely voters.

    August 23, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Youngkin By 3% in VA / Two Polls in FL Give Different Results

    Change Research has added to the recent pile of polls in Virginia and shows Terry McAuliffe up by 3% over Glenn Youngkin.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Change Research)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 44%

    This poll was done August 14-18 among 1334 likely voters. While the margin fluctuates, one common theme of every public poll in Virginia thus far is Terry McAuliffe leads Glenn Youngkin. Meanwhile, we have two new polls in the state of Florida that completely contradict each other at the gubernatorial level. They come from the aforementioned Change Research and The Political Matrix/The Listener Group.

    GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 49%
    Charlie Crist (D) 45%

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 49%
    Nikki Fried (D) 44%

    GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (TPM/TLG)
    Charlie Crist (D) 57%
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 43%

    Nikki Fried (D) 54%
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 46%

    Interestingly while hResearch was more favorable to Republicans at the gubernatorial level, their poll of the US Senate race was worse for Marco Rubio.

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 47%
    Val Demings (D) 44%

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (TPM/TLG)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 55%
    Val Demings (D) 45%

    The Change Research poll was done August 14-17 among 1455 likely voters while the Political Matrix/The Listener Group poll was done August 14-18 among 1000 likely voters. Two polls over basically the same exact period of time giving completely different results.

    August 20, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Youngkin In Two New Polls in VA

    We received two new polls for the state of Virginia that give Terry McAuliffe an 8% lead (Roanoke College) a 3% lead lead (Virginia Commonwealth University).

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Roanoke College)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 38%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (VCU)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 40%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 37%

    Both polls were completed over more than a week period, with Roanoke College doing their poll between August 3-17 among 558 likely voters and Virginia Commonwealth University doing their poll between August 4-15 among 770 registered voters.