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    August 17, 2022

    Vance Leads by 3% in OH, Johnson Trails By 7% in WI, Rubio Leads By 11% in FL

    In the state of Ohio, JD Vance has moved ahead of Tim Ryan in the latest poll from Emerson College.

    US SENATE – OHIO (Emerson)
    JD Vance (R) 45%
    Tim Ryan (D) 42%

    GOVERNOR – OHIO (Emerson)
    Mike DeWine (R-inc) 49%
    Nan Whaley (D) 33%

    PRESIDENT – OHIO (Emerson)
    Donald Trump (R) 53%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 39%

    This poll was done August 15-16 among 925 likely voters. The news is not as great for Republicans in Wisconsin, especially at the US Senate level, where Ron Johnson trails by 7% in a new poll from Marquette Law School.

    US SENATE – WISCONSIN (MLS)
    Mandela Barnes (D) 51%
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 44%

    GOVERNOR – WISCONSIN (MLS)
    Tony Evers (D-inc) 45%
    Tim Michels (R) 43%

    This poll was done August 10-15 among 811 registered voters. Finally, we have a new poll from Center Street PAC that completely contradicts the poll we saw earlier this week from the University of North Florida that claimed Marco Rubio was trailing Val Demings. This new poll has Marco Rubio up by double digits.

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (CSP)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 52%
    Val Demings (D) 41%

    This poll was done August 12-14 among 610 likely voters. So we have two polls supposedly polling the same population with end dates just two days apart with a margin difference of almost 15 percentage points (+11 for Rubio versus +4 for Demings).

    August 16, 2022

    Demings Leads Rubio By 4% in FL

    As Republicans continue to struggle in their effort to regain enough US Senate seats to take back the majority, we have a new poll from the University of North Florida that shows Marco Rubio may be the latest Republican candidate to be in danger of losing another US Senate for the Republicans.

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (UNF)
    Val Demings (D) 48%
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 44%

    GOVERNOR- FLORIDA (UNF)
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 50%
    Charlie Crist (D) 42%

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 50%
    Nikki Fried (D) 43%

    This poll was done August 8-12 among 1624 registered voters. it is hard to just dismiss this poll as a Democratic-leaning poll considering DeSantis is ahead in his race.

    August 14, 2022

    Abbott Leads O’Rourke By 6% in TX

    We had a new poll today that shows Greg Abbott may be able to avoid the disaster the Republican Party is running into at the US Senate level as he maintains a lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke according to the new poll from the University of Texas at Tyler and The Dallas Morning News.

    GOVERNOR – TEXAS (UTT/DMN)
    Greg Abbott (R-inc) 48%
    Beto O’Rourke (D) 42%

    This poll was done August 1-7 among 1215 likely voters.

    August 5, 2022

    Oz and Vance Both Trail By Double Digits in PA and OH

    I really wish we would get a new poll for my home state of Maryland to see how badly Donald Trump’s chosen GOP candidate for Governor is losing but for now we will see how badly his chosen GOP candidates for the US Senate are doing in Ohio and Pennsylvania with new polls from Center Street PAC.

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Momentive/SM)
    John Fetterman (D) 52%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 38%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Momentive/SM)
    Tim Ryan (D) 49%
    JD Vance (R) 38%

    The PA poll was done July 29-August 1 and the OH poll was done August 1-3, both among likely voters. Republicans are trailing in two states they currently hold US Senate seats in by double digits and they expect to retake control of the US Senate this election cycle?

    July 27, 2022

    Trump’s Chosen Candidates Trail in GA and PA

    We have two new polls for the state of Georgia that show similar results where the voters in Georgia seem happy to keep Republican Brian Kemp (not endorsed by Trump) as Governor but would have a Democrat as US Senator instead of Herschel Walker (endorsed by Trump). The two polls come from Survey USA and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 45%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 48%
    Herschel Walker (R) 39%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (AJC)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 48%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 43%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (AJC)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%
    Herschel Walker (R) 43%

    The Survey USA poll was done July 21-24 among 604 likely voters. The AJC poll was done July 14-22 among 902 likely voters. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania in a new poll from Blueprint Polling, both of Trump’s endorsed candidates are trailing badly providing Democrats with a golden pickup opportunity at least in the US Senate.

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Blueprint Polling)
    John Fetterman (D) 49%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 40%

    GOVERNOR – PENNSYLVANIA (Blueprint Polling)
    Josh Shapiro (D) 51%
    Doug Mastriano (R) 39%

    This poll was done July 19-21 among 712 likely voters.

    July 16, 2022

    Cheney Down By 22% in Primary Race in Wyoming

    If a new poll from the Caspar Star-Tribune and Mason-Dixon is to be believe, Liz Cheney is going to lose her bid for the nomination for re-election by the Republicans.

    US HOUSE – WY-AL – GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
    Harriet Hageman 52%
    Liz Cheney (inc) 30%
    Anthony Bouchard 5%
    Robyn Belinskey 1%
    Denton Knapp 1%

    This poll was done July 7-11 among 1100 likely primary voters.

    July 14, 2022

    Kemp Leads Abrams By 7%, Warnock Leads Walker By 3% in GA

    So we received a call to our home last night from Public Policy Polling who is apparently doing a poll on the gubernatorial race for Maryland. Not sure if it will be public or not, but if so, usually PPP releases them a few days after the polls are complete.

    Meanwhile in Georgia, we have a new poll from Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research that shows voters might be splitting their tickets, giving Republican Brian Kemp a healthy lead over Stacey Abrams while in turn putting Raphael Warnock up on Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker.

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (FW&IR)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 52%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 45%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (FW&IR)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 50%
    Herschel Walker (R) 47%

    This poll was done July 5-11 among 1197 likely voters.

    July 9, 2022

    Walker Leads Warnock By 2%, Kemp Leads Abrams By 9% in GA

    The polls out of Ohio that I posted this morning showed Democrats in position to pick up a US Senate seat in Ohio. Meanwhile, a new poll from Data for Progress shows the opposite happening in the state of Georgia where Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker holds a 2% lead over Democrat Raphael Warnock.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (DFP)
    Herschel Walker (R) 49%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (DFP)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 53%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    This poll was done July 1-6 among 1131 likely voters.

    Ryan Leads Vance in Two Polls in OH

    We have two new polls for the US Senate race in Ohio showing Republicans are in danger of dropping the seat currently occupied by Rob Portman to the Democrats as the Trump-endorsed candidate JD Vance trails Democrat Tim Ryan by margins of 2% and 9%. The two polls come from Impact Research (paid for by the Tim Ryan campaign) and the left-leaning Center Street PAC.

    US SENATE- OHIO (Impact Research)
    Tim Ryan (D) 48%
    JD Vance (R) 46%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Center Street PAC)
    Tim Ryan (D) 49%
    JD Vance (R) 40%

    The Impact Research poll was done June 27-30 among 816 likely voters while the Center Street PAC poll was done July 3rd among likely voters. There has been no polls from either the Vance campaign or right-leaning groups of late to counter these two polls.

    Posted by Dave at 8:49 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (76) | Display Comments On Separate Page

    July 2, 2022

    Trump Leads Biden By 5% Nationally

    Despite the January 6th hearings and all the bad press Donald Trump has been getting lately, we have a new poll from Emerson College yesterday that shows he would still defeat Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch.

    PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
    Donald Trump (R) 44%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 39%

    IN the primary race, the poll did not seem to include many names, but the bottom line is Republicans seem to still want Donald Trump to be the face of their party.

    PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
    Donald Trump 55%
    Ron DeSantis 20%
    Mike Pence 9%
    Nikki Haley 3%
    Mike Pompeo 1%

    This poll was done June 28-29 among 1271 registered voters.