2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 186
Biden : 352
Click here

2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 49
DEM : 49
IND : 2
Click here

EGO BOOST
GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS
    Search

    September 23, 2020

    ABC News/WaPo Shows Trump Surging To Lead in AZ and FL

    There has been a lot of polling this week and in lieu of posting everything from Monday and Tuesday, I am going to just jump to the bombshell polls this morning from The Washington Post and ABC News that shows Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in both Florida and Arizona, which are the best numbers we have seen for Trump in quite a while for these two state. On top of that ABC News and The Washington Post are showing Martha McSally within a single percentage point of Mark Kelly.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (ABC/WaPo)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (ABC/WaPo)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 48%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (ABC/WaPo)
    Mark Kelly (D) 49%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 48%

    These polls were done September 15-20 among likely voters in each state. Change Research also has their usual batch of polls and they pour a little cold water on the numbers above for AZ and FL.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – ARINZONA (Change Research)
    Mark Kelly (D) 51%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 50%
    John James (R) 44%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 48%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    These polls were done September 18-20 among likely voters in each state.

    September 20, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in FL and MN, Trump Leads Biden in TX and GA

    We received more polls today and overall they are better for Republicans than more recent polling has shown. In Texas and Florida, new polls from CBS News and YouGov show the race in both states with 2% between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (CBS/YouGov)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (CBS/YouGov)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    US SENATE – TEXAS (CBS/YouGov)
    John Cornyn (R-inc) 46%
    MJ Hegar (D) 41%

    These polls were done September 15-18 among likely voters in each state. Redfield and Wilton Strategies gives us new numbers in Minnesota and Georgia.

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (RWF)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (RWF)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    US SENATE – MINNESOTA (RWF)
    Tina Smith (D-inc) 51%
    Jason Lewis (R) 36%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (RWF)
    David Perdue (R-inc) 43%
    Jon Ossoff (D) 43%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – SPECIAL (RWF)
    Kelly Loeffler (R-inc) 26%
    Raphael Warnock (D) 21%
    Doug Collins (R) 19%
    Matt Lieberman 15%

    The General Election for the Special Election will not occur until January 5th, 2021, but just imagine if that Georgia US Senate race ends up being a battle for the tiebreaking vote in a Supreme Court vote next year regardless of who is President after January 20th, 2021. The GA poll was done September 12-16 and the MN poll was done September 12-17, both among likely voters.

    Daines Leads Bullock by 1% in MT, Greenfield Leads Ernst by 3% in IA

    This morning a new poll came out from The New York Times and Siena College for the state of Montana that shows Republican Steve Daines with only a single percentage point in his bid to keep this US Senate seat in GOP hands.

    PRESIDENT – MONTANA (Siena/NYT)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 42%

    US SENATE – MONTANA (Siena/NYT)
    Steve Daines (R-inc) 45%
    Steve Bullock (D) 44%

    US HOUSE – MONTANA – CD AL (Siena/NYT)
    Kathleen Williams (D) 44%
    Matt Rosendale (D) 41%

    GOVERNOR – MONTANA (Siena/NYT)
    Greg Gianforte (R) 45%
    Mike Cooney (D) 39%

    Some commentary I have seen on this poll focuses on the fact that the Green Party candidate was included in the poll despite the fact that the Green Party will not be on the ballot with many people surmising these polls are actually worse for Republicans. This poll was done September 14-16 among 625 likely voters. Meanwhile in Iowa, a new poll from The Des Moines Register has Democrat Theresa Greenfield dup on the incumbent Republican Joni Ernst.

    US SENATE – IOWA (DMR)
    Theresa Greenfield (D) 45%
    Joni Ernst (R-inc) 42%

    This poll was done September 14-17 among 658 likely voters.

    September 18, 2020

    Ruth Bader Ginsburg Dies

    As if this election season needed any more gas lighting….

    Biden Leads Trump in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI / Trump Leads Biden in OH

    Some more polls this afternoon, first from Redfield and Wilton Strategies who released numbers for six states and included the corresponding US Senate polls.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (RWS)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (RWS)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (RWS)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 39%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (RWS)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (RWS)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (RWS)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (RWS)
    Mark Kelly (D) 52%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 35%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (RWS)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 38%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (RWS)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 51%
    John James (R) 35%

    These polls were done September 12-14 in FL, PA and MI, September 12-15 in NC, and September 12-16 in AZ and WI. Meanwhile, also out this afternoon are polls for four states from Civiqs.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Civiqs)
    Joe Biden (D) 53%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 342%

    PRESIDENT – OHIO (Civiqs)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Civiqs)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Civiqs)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    These polls were done September 11-15 among registered voters in each state.

    Biden Leads Trump in AZ, NC, ME, and ME2

    This morning we received a new set of polls from Siena College and The New York Times showing Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in Arizona, North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. The incumbent Republican US Senators also trail in all three states.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Siena/NYT)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Siena/NYT)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE (Siena/NYT)
    Joe Biden 55%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE – CD2 (Siena/NYT)
    Joe Biden 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    Here are the numbers at the US Senate level.

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Siena/NYT)
    Mark Kelly (D) 50%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Siena/NYT)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 42%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 37%

    US SENATE – MAINE (Siena/NYT)
    Sara Gideon (D) 49%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 44%

    The ME poll was done September 10-15 and the NC and AZ polls were done September 11-16, all among likely voters in each state.

    September 17, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in Two Polls in NC, Two Polls in AZ and One Poll in FL

    Catching up on the polls from earlier today, starting with Arizona and the new poll from Monmouth University.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Monmouth)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Monmouth)
    Mark Kelly (D) 50%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 44%

    This poll was done September 11-15 among 420 registered voters. In a poll that was released this morning for the Kaiser Family Foundation and Cook Political Report, we also get new numbers for Arizona along with numbers for North Carolina and Florida.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (KFF/Cook)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (KFF/Cook)
    Joe Biden (D) 43%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (KFF/Cook)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (KFF/Cook)
    Mark Kelly (D) 50%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (KFF/Cook)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 41%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 37%

    These polls were done August 29-September 13 among registered voters in each state. Finally, one more poll from North Carolina and Suffolk University.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Suffolk)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Suffolk)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 42%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 38%

    This poll was done September 11-14 among 500 likely voters.

    September 16, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in ME, ME2, WI and MN, Trump Leads Biden in SC and KY

    The biggest news out of this new poll from Quinnipiac University is Republicans appear to be definitely losing their US Senate seat in Maine and are on the verge of also losing their seat in South Carolina.

    PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    PRESIDENT – KENTUCKY (Quinnipiac)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 58%
    Joe Biden (D) 38%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE (Quinnipiac)
    Joe Biden (D) 59%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE – CD2 (Quinnipiac)
    Joe Biden (D) 53%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
    Jaime Harrison (D) 48%
    Lindsey Graham (R-inc) 48%

    US SENATE – MAINE (Quinnipiac)
    Sara Gideon (D) 54%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – KENTUCKY (Quinnipiac)
    Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 53%
    Amy McGrath (D) 41%

    These polls were done September 10-14 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile ABC News and The Washington Post gave us presidential numbers for Wisconsin and Minnesota that shows Trump with 6% in WI and down 175 in MN.

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 57%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    This poll was done September 8-13 among likely voters.

    September 15, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 5% in FL, 10% in WI, 3% in NC

    Today we received a new poll from Monmouth University for the state of Florida that has Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by 5%.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Monmouth)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    This poll was done September 10-13 among 428 registered voters. Earlier today, CNN released polls for the states of Wisconsin and North Carolina that shows Joe Biden up in both states.

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (CNN)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (CNN)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (CNN)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 46%

    These polls were done September 9-13 among likely voters in each state.

    September 14, 2020

    Trump Leads Biden By 2% in NC in One Poll, Tied With Biden in Another NC Poll

    We have two polls from the state of North Carolina earlier today, one from Survey USA and one from Trafalgar Group, that has Donald Trump either tied with or ahead of Joe Biden.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Survey USA)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    the Survey USA poll was done September 10-13 among 596 likely voters. The Trafalgar Group poll was done September 9-11 among 1096 likely voters.