2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 180
Biden : 358
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2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 47
DEM : 51
IND : 2
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    October 29, 2020

    Trump Leads Biden By 2% in MI and 4% in AZ

    So it looks like The Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports are not giving in and will continue to go against the herd and show polls that favor Donald Trump right up until Election Day. The Trafalgar Group released a poll tonight that shows Trump ahead in the state of Michigan.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    There have been 14 straight public polls that I have captured that had Joe Biden ahead of Trump (all but one had Biden ahead by at least 7% with the lone one giving Biden a 5% lead). The last MI poll to show Trump ahead before this one was one done October 15-18 by, you guessed it, The Trafalgar Group. This latest poll was done October 25-28 among 1058 likely voters. Meanwhile Rasmussen Reports is giving Donald Trump a 4% lead over Joe Biden in the state of Arizona.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Rasmussen)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    While most polls show this race closer than in Michigan, most polls still have given Biden the lead. But this new Rasmussen Reports poll is the largest lead for Trump in any public Arizona pollany public Arizona pollany public Arizona poll since a poll in early October by, you guess it again, The Trafalgar Group.

    There you go everyone who thinks I am too anti-Trump, a post with two great polls for Donald Trump….

    Biden Leads Trump in GA / Collins Gets Closer in ME

    Sorry for the slight blackout since yesterday. This post will start with a focus on Georgia and the polls yesterday and today that shows Donald Trump trailing in a state that I think anyone who thinks Trump is going to win doesn’t even consider Georgia to be a swing state. These polls come from Public Policy Polling and Monmouth University.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Monmouth)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    It isn’t much better for Republicans at the US Senate level in Georgia as there is a chance Republicans could lose both US Senate seats this election cycle.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (PPP)
    Jon Ossoff (D) 47%
    David Perdue (R) 44%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Monmouth)
    Jon Ossoff (D) 49%
    David Perdue (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – SPECIAL RUNOFF (Monmouth)
    Raphael Warnock (D) 52%
    Doug Collins (R) 45%

    Raphael Warnock (D) 51%
    Kelly Loeffler (R-inc) 45%

    The PPP poll was done October 27-28 among 661 registered voters. The Monmouth Poll was done October 23-27 among 504 voters. On the positive side for Republicans, there may still be hope for Susan Collins and Trump keeping the 2nd Congressional District in his pocket as things are a little closer than other recent polls according to a new poll from Survey USA (base don allocating instant runoff votes).

    PRESIDENT – MAINE – CD2 (Survey USA)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

    US SENATE – MAINE (Survey USA)
    Sara Gideon (D) 51%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 49%

    This poll was done October 23-27 among 1007 likely voters. That’ll give you a clean slate for now.

    October 28, 2020

    Biden Crushing Trump in WI By 17%, Leads Trump by 7% in MI, Leads Trump BY 4% in ME2

    An absolute bomb was dropped by ABC News and The Washington Post with their new poll from Wisconsin showing Joe Biden with an almost unbelievable 17% lead over Donald Trump in a state Trump won just four years ago.

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 57%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    if you are looking at straight polling averages, you would need nine different polls showing Trump with an average of a 2% lead to overcome this single poll to even get Trump back to even in Wisconsin. These polls were October 20-25 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile in Maine, Trump is trailing in the Second Congressional District in a new poll from Colby College which is another electoral vote on the verge of switching to Biden.

    PRESIDENT – MAINE – CD2 (Colby College)
    Joe Biden (D) 46%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MAINE (Colby College)
    Sara Gideon (D) 47%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done October 21-25 among likely voters.

    October 27, 2020

    Bullock Leads Daines in MT, Graham/Harrison Tied in SC, Dems Dominate in MN

    Right now The Hedgehog Report Poll Watch shows Republicans on the verge of dropping down to 47 seats in the US Senate once the final races in Georgia are settled and this afternoon we received two polls that could put an additional two GOP seats in play that are part of those 47 seats. Public Policy Polling is showing Republican Steve Daines trailing in Montana while a new Data for Progress poll in South Carolina has the US Senate race tied.

    US SENATE – MONTANA (PPP)
    Steve Bullock (D) 49%
    Steve Daines (R-inc) 48%

    US SENATE – SOUTH CAROLINA (DFP)
    Lindsey Graham (R-inc) 46%
    Jaime Harrison (D) 46%

    The PPP poll was done October 26-27 among 886 voters wile the DFP poll was done October 22-27 among 1196 likely voters. Meanwhile a new poll from RABA Research in Iowa shows another state Trump won in 2016 on the verge of moving over to Biden.

    PRESIDENT – IOWA (RABA)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    This poll was done October 21-24 among 693 likely voters. And it looks like the longshot hope of Minnesota being in play for Trump is further from reality in a new poll from Gravis Marketing.

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 53%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 39%

    US SENATE – MINNESOTA (Gravis)
    Tina Smith (D-inc) 53%
    Jason lewis (R) 39%

    This poll was done October 24-26 among 657 likely voters.

    Biden Leads Trump in NV By 6%, Trump leads Biden By 5% in FL, Biden/Trump Tied in PA

    Some confirmation on the Nevada poll from this morning from Siena College and The New York Times which shows Biden ahead by 6%.

    PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Siena/NYT)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done October 23-26 among 809 likely voters. In Florida we have a new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research which is now showing Donald Trump with a 5% lead over Joe Biden.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (SPR)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 44%

    This poll was done October 23-25 among 400 likely voters. Trafalgar Group (it is on their site this time) has a new poll in North Carolina which claims Thom Tillis has opened up a 2% lead over Cal Cunningham in the US Senate race there.

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Trafalgar)
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 49%
    Cal Cunningham (D) 47%

    This poll was done October 20-22 among 1098 likely voters. They also have released a new poll for the state of Pennsylvania claiming the race is tied (technically an 0.8% lead for Trump before rounding).

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 48%

    This poll was done October 24-25 among 1076 likely voters.

    Biden Leads Trump By 9% in NV, 5% in GA and 2% in FL / Dems Leads Both Senate Races in GA

    A lot of supporters of Donald Trump seem to think the state of Nevada is in play these days, but a new poll from BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School shows Joe Biden with a 9% lead over Donald Trump.

    PRESIDENT – NEVADA (BUSR/UNLVLBS)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

    This poll was done October 16-23 among 802 likely voters. On top of this, there are absolutely brutal numbers for Republicans in a new poll from Civiqs and Daily Kos for the state of Georgia where Joe Biden, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have opened up decent leads in the Presidential and two US Senate races.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Jon Ossoff (D) 51%
    David Perdue (R-inc) 45%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – SPECIAL (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Raphael Warnock 48%
    Doug Collins 23%
    Kelly Loeffler 22%
    Matt Lieberman 2%
    Ed Tarver 1%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA SPECIAL RUNOFF (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Raphael Warnock (D) 51%
    Kelly Loeffler (D) 37%

    Raphael Warnock (D) 51%
    Doug Collins (D) 42%

    This poll was done October 23-26 among 1041 likely voters. Civiqs and Daily Kos also released polls for Pennsylvania and Mississippi that give the expected results.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – MISSISSIPPI (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 55%
    Joe Biden (D) 41%

    US SENATE – MISSISSIPPI (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-inc) 52%
    Mike Espy (D) 44%

    These polls were also both done October 23-26 among 1145 likely voters in PA and 507 likely voters in MS. The only bright spot so far this morning for Trump supporters may be this new poll from Florida Atlantic University for the state of Florida that has Trump only down 2%.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (FAU)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    This poll was done October 24-25 among 937 likely voters.

    October 26, 2020

    Trump Leads Biden in PA, Trump Leads Two Polls in TX, Biden Leads One Poll in TX

    The big poll this afternoon comes form Insider Advantage paid for by Center for American Greatness shows Donald Trump opening up a small lead over Joe Biden in the state of Pennsylvania.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (IA)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    The lead is actually 2.9%, although rounding makes it show up as only a 2% lead. This poll was done October 25th among 400 likely voters. meanwhile we have, count them, three new polls for the state of Texas. One comes from Data for Progress, one comes from Siena College and The New York Times. And the final one comes from YouGov and the University of Houston.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (DFP)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Siena/NYT)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
    Joe Biden (D) 43%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (YouGov/UH)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    The DFP poll was done October 22-25. the Siena/NYT poll was done October 20-25, and the YouGov poll was done October 13-20, all among likely voters.

    Biden/Ossoff Slightly Ahead in GA

    Well it looks like a lot of people, including yours truly, were duped by someone posting numbers purported to be from The Trafalgar Group yesterday. While the North Carolina poll was legit, the polls from Florida, Michigan and Arizona turned out not to be and the chief pollster of Trafalgar Group posted this tweet yesterday. I always do try to find the original source of polls first by going to the actual pollster website. Next step is to get it from the news organization or political organization that sponsored the polls. Last resort is a news article referencing the poll if the first two can’t found. In this case I relied on the more mainstream poll aggregator sites that I normally trust that they already vetted this poll since they have the resources. Interestingly they were questioning it themselves from the beginning and it was not until later in the day they concluded it was not legitimate and removed it themselves. For me, I should have waited until it showed up somewhere in my first three choices of locations. I am sure it won’t be the last time someone posts something fake and fools a lot of people including me, but I try to be more careful myself.

    This morning, we have a new poll from the University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal Constitution that has Joe Biden and Jon Ossoff both up by a single percentage point in the state of Georgia.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (AJC/UGA)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (AJC/UGA)
    Jon Ossoff (D) 46%
    David Perdue (R-inc) 45%

    This poll was done October 14-23 among 1145 likely voters.

    October 25, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 13% in MI, Two Polls Show DIfferent Leader in NC

    Well after we got those numbers form Trafalgar Group for Michigan claiming Trump was ahead by 2%, we get a new poll from Gravis Marketing for the state of Michigan done on the exact same day as the Trafalgar Group poll (October 24th) that shows Joe Biden leading in Michigan by double digits.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 55%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Gravis)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 52%
    John James (R) 41%

    This poll was done October 24th among 679 likely voters. So we literally had two polls done on the same day in the same state, one has Trump ahead by 2% and one has Biden ahead by 13%. The great news is in about nine days, we will see which polling organizations know what is actually happening.

    Meanwhile CBS News and YouGov gave us new numbers for the states of North Carolina, GeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgia and Florida.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (YouGov/CBS News)
    David Perdue (R-inc) 47%
    Jon Ossoff (D) 46%

    These polls were done October 20-23 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, Trafalgar Group came back again this morning with a new poll for the state of North Carolina themselves that was done before the debate and it has, surprise, Trump ahead.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    This poll was done October 20-22 among 1098 likely voters.

    Biden Leads Trump in TX BY 3%, Trump Leads Biden By 2% in MI

    We are now less than ten days from Election Day and the polling numbers continue to confound. We will start this morning with new polls that claim at the same time, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in the state of Texas by 3% (according to the University of Texas at Tyler) and Trump is ahead of Biden in Michigan by 2% (according to the Trafalgar Group. Trafalgar Group continues to give the most pro-Trump numbers by showing Trump ahead in both Florida and Arizona as well.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (UTT)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    The Trafalgar Group is basically going all in with a Trump Electoral College win at this point. The TX poll was done October 13-20 among 925 likely voters. The Trafalgar polls were all done October 24th among likely voters.

    UPDATE 10/26 – It turns out the Trafalgar polls were faked by someone. Removing now for the record.