2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 170
Biden : 368
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2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 49
DEM : 49
IND : 2
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    August 12, 2020

    New Change Research Polls From AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA and WI

    In latest poll from Change Research, we see some mixed results as half the states shift towards Donald Trump while the other half shift to Joe Biden.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    At the US Senate level, as before Democrats are leading in all three states being contested from above, including two seats currently held by Republicans.

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 48%
    John James (R) 45%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Mark Kelly (D-inc) 49%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 48%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done August 7-9 among likely voters.

    August 11, 2020

    Trump Leads Biden By 2% NC, Biden Leads Trump in PA and AZ

    We have a Democratic VP nominee, so we should start getting a heavy load of new polls. Earlier this afternoon we received some more numbers from Emerson College for the states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Emerson)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Emerson)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 44%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 42%

    GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (Emerson)
    Roy Cooper (D-inc) 50%
    Dan Forest (R) 44%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Emerson)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Emerson)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Emerson)
    Mark Kelly (D) 52%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 41%

    This poll was done August 8-10 among likely voters in each state.

    Trump Within 3% Of Biden in MN

    Things seem to be a little closer than they should be in Minnesota if you are expecting a Joe Biden-blowout according to a new poll from Emerson College.

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Emerson)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    US SENATE – MINNESOTA (Emerson)
    Tina Smith (D-inc) 48%
    Jason Lewis (R) 45%

    This poll was done August 8-10 among 733 likely voters. Meanwhile in Wisconsin, a new poll from Marquette Law School has the race at a 5% lead for Biden in this state among likely voters.

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    This poll was done August 4-9 among 675 likely voters. In Georgia, a new poll from Survey USA shows Biden with an edge, but Republicans having an edge at the US Senate level.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
    Joe Biden (D) 46%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
    David Perdue (R-inc) 44%
    Jon Ossoff (D) 41%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – SPECIAL PRIMARY (Survey USA)
    Kelly Loeffler (R-inc) 26%
    Raphael Warnock (D) 17%
    Doug Collins (R) 17%
    Matt Lieberman (D) 13%
    Ed Tarver (D) 3%

    This poll was done August 6-8 among 623 likely voters.

    August 9, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 6% in PA and WI

    A seemingly slow weekend polling less than three months out from the election. We did get a new poll numbers from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this morning from CBS News and YouGov that has Joe Biden up by 6% in both states that Donald Trump won four years ago.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (CBS/YouGov)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (CBS/YouGov)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    These polls were done August 4-7 among 1211 likely voters in PA and 994 likely voters in WI.

    August 7, 2020

    Marshall Leads Bollier By Only 1 % in KS

    We are three days from the Republicans in Kansas picking Roger Marshall as their nominee for the US Senate and Public Policy Polling is already out with a new poll claiming Marshall only leads his Democratic opponent by a single-percentage point.

    PRESIDENT – KANSAS (PPP)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 43%

    US SENATE – KANSAS (PPP)
    Roger Marshall (R) 43%
    Barbara Bollier (D) 425

    This poll was done August 5-6 among 864 registered voters.

    August 6, 2020

    Graham/Harrison Tied in SC, Gideon Leads Collins By 4% in ME

    Late today we got a new poll from Quinnipiac University that shows Donald Trump might at least be able to hold the Congressional seat in Maine he won last time.

    PRESIDENT – KENTUCKY (Quinnipiac)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 41%

    PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
    Joe Biden (D) 42%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE (Quinnipiac)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 37%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE CD 2 (Quinnipiac)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
    Joe Biden (D) 44%

    At the US Senate level, we another poll showing Lindsey Graham in serious troubel of losing another seat for the Republicans.

    US SENATE – KENTUCKY (Quinnipiac)
    Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 49%
    Amy McGrath (D) 43%

    US SENATE – SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
    Lindsey Graham (R-inc) 445
    James Harrison (D) 44%

    US SENATE – MAINE (Quinnipiac)

    These polls were done July 30-August 3 among registered voters in each state.

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    August 5, 2020

    Polls From FL, NC, OH, PA and IA

    Today we got a new set of polls from Zogby Analytics that are a little that shows Joe Biden ahead of Trump in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania while Trump and Biden are tied in Florida.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Zogby)
    Joe Biden (D) 43%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Zogby)
    Joe Biden (D) 44%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – OHIO (Zogby)
    Joe Biden (D) 43%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Zogby)
    Joe Biden (D) 44%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    These polls were all done July 21-23 among a little more than 800 likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, Monmouth University has released what has to be the best numbers Joni Ernst has seen in a while.

    PRESIDENT – IOWA (Monmouth)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    US SENATE – IOWA (Monmouth)
    Joni Ernst (R-inc) 48%
    Theresa Greenfield (D) 45%

    This poll was done July 30-August 3 among 401 registered voters.

    Biden Dominates Trump in HI

    We do not get polls from Hawaii too often so might as well take advantage of one we received today from Civil Beat and Hawaii News Now that shows Joe Biden should have no problem holding the birthplace of Barack Obama.

    PRESIDENT – HAWAII (Civil Beat/Hawaii News Now)
    Joe Biden (D) 56%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 29%

    This poll was done July 27-30 among 975 registered voters.

    August 4, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 1% in TX, Graham Only Ahead By 1% in SC

    The two big items out of the polls Morning Consult released this morning for the state of Texas, South Carolina, Alabama and Kentucky is Biden showing a single-percentage-point lead in Texas and Lindsey Graham only ahead by a single-percentage point in South Carolina.

    PRESIDENT – ALABAMA (MC)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 58%
    Joe Biden (D) 36%

    PRESIDENT – KENTUCKY (MC)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 59%
    Joe Biden (D) 35%

    PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (MC)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 44%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (MC)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – ALABAMA (MC)
    Tommy Tuberville (R) 59%
    Doug Jones (D-inc) 35%

    US SENATE – KENTUCKY (MC)
    Mitch McConnell (R-inc) 53%
    Amy McGrath (D) 36%

    US SENATE – SOUTH CAROLINA (MC)
    Lindsey Graham (R-inc) 44%
    James Harrison (D) 43%

    US SENATE – TEXAS (MC)
    Jon Cornyn (R-inc) 44%
    MJ Hegar (D) 38%

    These polls were done July 24-August 2 among likely voters in each state.

    August 3, 2020

    Trumps Leads By 11%, Daines Leads by 6% in MT

    Today we get a new poll from the state of Montana from Emerson College that has Donald Trump with a double-digit lead over Joe Biden while sitting Republican US Senator Steve Daines now holds a 6% edge on Democrat Steve Bullock.

    PRESIDENT – MONTANA (Emerson)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
    Joe Biden (D) 42%

    US SENATE – MONTANA (Emerson)
    Steve Daines (R-inc) 50%
    Steve Bullock (D) 44%

    GOVERNOR – MONTANA (Emerson)
    Greg Gianforte (R) 51%
    Mike Cooney (D) 42%

    This poll was done July 31-August 2 among 584 likely voters.